Topics for Week 5 - 2024
Is Trump The Greatest Politician Of The Century? What To Do About Immigration? The Rise Of Vietnam
As January draws to a close, we're wrapping up week 5 of the year, transitioning into February. It seems the stars have aligned, with all my news sources buzzing with activity as the month concludes. However, this week, the Barbies chose to concentrate on three main topics, offering a well-balanced mix of global and regional significance:
The brilliance of Trump as a politician
The state of immigration
Vietnam’s prospects
If we have time maybe a fourth topic
MomentumWork’s Annual Food Delivery Report
Sources of Initiation:
Trump
Immigration
Vietnam
Southeast Asia Annual Food Delivery Report:
Issues, Ideas, and Questions
Trump Politicking:
Why are we talking about Trump?
What about Trump: populist appeal, media savvy, brand building, simple and direct messaging, controversial and divisive tactics, challenging political norms, policy achievements, mobilization of supporters, impact on political discourse
Can you separate the man from the politician?
If you were American how would you vote and why?
Immigration:
What are the most important issues: economic impact, cultural integration, security, welfare and public services, illegals, political polarization
Asian Context: selective immigration, integration challenges, labor exploitation, demographic issues in homogenous societies, brain drain, refugee & asylum politics
The realities of economic impact
The root causes:
Lack of economic opportunity
Political Instability
Violence and Conflict
Climate change in the future?
Is it possible to strike a balance between a humanitarian solution and the economic and legal realities of the situation? Additionally, how does morality factor into this equation, if at all?
How important is cultural integration?
Is Southeast Asia the most attractive for immigrations in the future?
The contrast between Western vs Eastern Immigration issues.
Vietnam
Key Insights from the Economist Article:
Balancing Geopolitical Ties: How can Vietnam continue to position itself as a self-sufficient nation while maintaining balanced trade and diplomatic relations with both America and China?
Developing a China+1 Infrastructure: Strategies for building a 'China+1' infrastructure value chain to diversify economic dependencies. Is it possible?
Energy Security: Approaches for Vietnam to build and ensure energy security in the face of growing industrial demands. Will they follow the China approach
Combating Corruption: Given the structural similarities to China, how can Vietnam tackle corruption issues and foster a rule of law that is attractive to foreign investment and trade?
Vietnam's Economic Ascent: Will Vietnam become the next high-income country in Southeast Asia? Exploring the possibilities and challenges.
Vingroup: is the local hero the right approach and the right bet?
On The Radar:
Asia
Vietnam
VNG pulls out IPO - what is going on? Not enough investors? Market won’t get a good valuation? Economics not strong at VNG?
China:
A Hong Kong court has ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande Group - what are the implications? Will the Chinese government react? Will this be a ticking timebomb or will there be a soft landing?
Real Estate Sales Plummet - More pressure on the Chinese real estate sector
Beijing sent military aircrafts and naval ships toward Taiwan right after meeting between U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met in Bangkok. - What’s the deal? Was this agreed on? Is China asserting itself after allowing resumed talks with the US?
Singapore
Signs of Carousell finally starting to monetize traditionally. Is it too late in the game? Why start on a low margin category? Have the other categories monetized yet?
Shopee sues former senior employee for breach of non-compete. Singaporean judge dismisses case . Is it true non-competes are not enforceable in Southeast Asia? Is the bar too high? Or just high enough. Nice try Shopee!
Thailand:
I have been following Bitesize_BKK for awhile now and its fast becoming a great source for local Thai news.
Is the Thai Economy In Crisis? Bank of Thailand, Governor Sethaput Doesn’t seem to think so, but PM Thavisin does think so… So what is it?
Malaysia:
[UPDATED] Najib pardoned? - January 30th, 2024, news outlets seemed to have jump the gun and reported Najib as pardoned. There seems to be confusion and retractions? I suspect they are waiting for the right time to pardon him again and it will happen whether anyone likes it or not. What does that say about the state of Malaysia? I will let you decide.
United States:
3 Americans were killed due to the conflict with Iran-backed militants. - what are the odds we are getting into a third large war conflict in 2024 this time with American lives. How will the next president handle the ongoing conflicts? What are the economic impacts?
Will the fed land in between a rock and a hard place? Sentiment points to US economy growing better than expectations albeit at a slower rate. Consumers are spending more but a slower rate as well. Despite earlier layoffs in the banking and tech sectors and forecasts by the OECD and CBO predicting higher unemployment rates for the year, the job market has proven to be more robust than expected, with employment figures surpassing forecasts.. The Fed has maintained rates from there latest meeting January 31, 2024. There is an increasing risk of decreasing rate of inflation thus increasing the real interest rate (nominal set rate by the fed minus inflation rate). We have to keep in mind all this data are lagging. If real rates rise and unemployment rises we should see rate cuts sooner than later. For now Fed statements say otherwise.
Ready To Become Cyborgs? Musk claims Neuralink implanted its first chip in a human brain!
Another Casually from QE VC? 23andME market cap goes from 6 billion to nearly zero!