E:29 - Last EP of 2023 - Commercial Real Estate, Debt & MMT, Hollyood Strike, Nvidia, State of China

A retrospective of last episode from 2023 Recorded

E:29 Is Up!

Unfortunately, we're stuck with the cloud recording because the editing software kept corrupting the high-quality files. Regarding the lateness of this episode, I offer no apologies and no firm promises. However, I do aim to make 2024 a better year. Editing the episode we recorded in May 2023 was quite intriguing. You tend to forget the sentiment of the moment when things seem bleak. It was a particularly challenging year for Dave to raise funds for his industrial real estate venture. Risk came off in a significant way, and there was even more uncertainty than we're experiencing now.

Dave provided insightful analysis on the situation in commercial real estate, specifically focusing on how interest rates might impact the stakeholders facing a significant impending debt wall. During our discussion, Jianggan joined us, and the conversation shifted to the potential consequences if the U.S. defaults on its debt, considering recent budget statements in Congress. Last year, there was substantial posturing around the debt issue. However, this year things have been relatively quiet since Congress passed the bill on December 14, 2023. This calm might be due to the distraction caused by the primary elections in each political party. The GOP, in particular, is garnering a lot of attention in 2024, with Trump facing numerous indictments and strong contenders within the party vying for the top spot. Currently, Chris Christie has withdrawn from the race, with Trump appearing most likely to secure the nomination, followed by Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley

As our discussion unfolded, we delved into Modern Monetary Theory, applying its principles to the economic situations in China and Japan. This part of the conversation was particularly enlightening.

Dave was eager to discuss the finale of 'Succession.' However, at that time, I hadn't watched it. Having seen it since then, I find myself agreeing with Jianggan's sentiment; it leaves you with a kind of emptiness, much like the character Tom's apparent soullessness.

Instead of 'Succession,' we shifted our focus to the recent Hollywood strikes, particularly in relation to AI. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, we can see how everything played out. The strikes resulted in some victories, such as pay increases and improved security for streaming rights. However, there was a sense that the agreements didn't sufficiently address the potential impacts of AI on the industry.

Dave made a fantastic call about NVIDA last May:

We don't offer advice; we simply share opinions. On that note, if you shared Dave's views back then, your NVIDIA stock should be performing exceptionally well now!

As we wrapped up the episode, Jianggan unfortunately had to leave, but Dave and I continued our discussion, focusing on the current state of China. This conversation serves as an important precursor to the topics we plan to explore this year. Lately, I've noticed many colleagues sharing articles about the Western world's decline and China's ascent.

We'd love to hear your thoughts and what topics you're interested in. Let's work together to build this community-powered content!